Pardon the delay, I've been moving the last week or so and have had spotty internet and as a result haven't played much. Plus laziness.
I don't know who coined the phrase, but something that's been uttered many times by far better poker players than myself is, "Be process-oriented, not results-oriented." I'm unsure if the ad still runs, but when you see Doyle Brunson on TV saying that it's not about winning or losing, it's about making the right play, that's what he's talking about. Part of one's evolution as a poker player is looking at how a hand was played and not deciding that the play was correct or incorrect based on whether the hand was won, but whether one's logic was good at the time. The following is a hand where one might be tempted to second-guess the process based on the results, but I believe to do so would be a mistake:
Seat 1: UTGplus1 ($104.20 in chips)
Seat 2: Dealer ($163.49 in chips)
Seat 3: Small Blind ($130.65 in chips)
Seat 5: Big Blind ($68.50 in chips)
Seat 6: Donzo ($183.45 in chips)
Small Blind: posts small blind $0.50
Big Blind: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Donzo [Jh Jd]
Donzo: raises $3 to $3
UTGplus1: folds
Dealer: calls $3
Small Blind: raises $13.50 to $14
Big Blind: folds
We're playing 5-handed and are first to act holding JJ. We make a standard raise and get 3-bet large by the small blind. The villain makes it almost 5 times our initial raise, which is not always a tell, but in my experience often indicates some form of a hand that feels scared and/or vulnerable, particularly out of position. This tends to mean either a mid-pocket pair or AT+ sort of hand. Folding would be an atrociously tight play and raising is a legitimate option, but we have the ability to play a strong hand in position against a range that we have already narrowed down a lot, so we elect to call.
Donzo: calls $11
Dealer: folds
*** FLOP *** [6h 4d 4s]
Small Blind: checks
The flop comes 644 rainbow and the villain checks. If our range analysis is correct, the only hands that are a concern are 66, QQ, the small chance of KK or AA, and the very small chance that the villain was getting tricky holding a 4. We therefore bet to get value from 77-TT as well as a lighter calling A high, and also to get those same hands with substantial equity due to over cards to fold. We bet a little over half pot and the villain calls.
Donzo: bets $17
Small Blind: calls $17
*** TURN *** [6h 4d 4s] [Kc]
Small Blind: bets $22
The turn brings a K and the villain makes a very strange bet of $22 into about $66, or 1/3 pot. There are several possible rationales for this:
1) The villain check/called the flop with AK and is betting small to get value from 77-QQ hands that were betting the flop.
2) The villain has a hand in the 77-QQ range and is making a blocking bet with the expectation of folding to a raise and probably shutting down on the river in the event of a call.
3) The villain called with a hand like AT-AQ and is now deciding to turn the hand into a bluff because there aren't that many kings in our range.
In the moment, it's difficult to know what to make of the bet or how much weight to give to each of the preceding three possibilities. As the bet is so small and we only need to have the best hand 20% of the time for it to be a profitable call ((($22 / ($66+22+22)) = 20%), we elect to do so with the intent of evaluating the river.
Donzo: calls $22
*** RIVER *** [6h 4d 4s Kc] [Qs]
Small Blind: checks
The river brings a Q, a pretty terrible card, and the villain checks. Because the villain didn't bet the river, that makes it fairly unlikely that he or she has QQ or AK (unless they're paranoid that we hit QQ) and if they are holding 77-TT it's going to be almost impossible to get value from a value bet. In the event that the villain has AJ/AT they're obviously also folding and AQ has now gotten there. Without a stronger read on the villain, we can't expect them to make a fold with AQ or a call with 77-TT and therefore check behind. The villain shows AQ for the rivered pair.
Donzo: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Small Blind: shows [As Qh] (two pair, Queens and Aces)
Donzo: Mucks [Jh Jd] (Two pair)
Small Blind collected $108 from pot
While in hindsight we might consider whether we could have represented a K with a bet on the river to get AQ to fold, that is far too specific a read given the information we had available at the time and it might not have worked anyway.
The important takeaway is that we bet when we were ahead, called when we were ahead (and a raise would've been counter-productive), and checked behind when we couldn't get value from worse. In other words, we did everything right and the villain hit a 6-outer on the river. No biggie. Next hand.
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