Tricky Spots and Timing Tells

Few things in NLHE are less fun than being put to a decision knowing you're either crushed or slightly ahead of your opponent. At such times my inclination is usually to fold and "wait for a better spot." While that is often the correct course of action, there are times when a call or raise with a made hand is the most profitable choice. Let's look at a hand I played last week where I was faced with just such a decision:


Seat 2: UTGplus1 ($24.03 in chips)
Seat 3: Dealer ($20.33 in chips)
Seat 4: Small Blind ($28.97 in chips)
Seat 5: Big Blind ($15.79 in chips)
Seat 6: Donzo ($72.39 in chips)
Small Blind: posts small blind $0.10
Big Blind: posts big blind $0.25
UTGplus1: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Donzo [Ac Jd]
Donzo: raises $1 to $1
UTGplus1: calls $0.75
Dealer: folds
Small Blind: folds
Big Blind: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 6s Ad]
Donzo: bets $1.50
UTGplus1: raises $6.85 to $6.85

I'm UTG with AJ and raise to 4x due to the UTG+1 player (hereafter "villain") who posted their blind out of position. The villain calls and everyone else folds. The flop is good for me, as I flop top pair and am usually going to have the best hand. I bet $1.50 and it takes the villain less than a second to raise to $6.85. At this point, I'm going to say that there are a couple of different probable ranges for the villain to have. If we give the villain a range of two pair, a set, and any flush draw (including flush draws with a gutshot straight draw), Equilab tells us that our equity is 54%. If we expand the villain's range to include AK and AQ, our equity drops to 40%. I'm more inclined to drop AK and AQ out of the villain's range considering the lack of a 3bet, but it's not inconceivable.

We're now faced with what is essentially an all-in decision. I say that because if we call the villain's raise of $6.85, after rake we'll be looking at a pot of around $15 and the villain will have about $16 behind, leaving enough for roughly a pot-size bet on the turn, which considering the raise on the flop we have to expect on the turn the majority of the time. Therefore, in a vacuum, we might be inclined to fold here.

However, let's take a look at the raise again, which is notable for a couple of reasons. First, the size of the raise is large; the villain has made it about 4.5x my bet. Second, the raise was put in extremely quickly. What that means is that the villain had already made the decision about what to do prior to me putting in my bet. They had their mouse cursor waiting to hit the "pot" button to make a pot-size raise and then clicked raise.

Timing Tells

So, what do those two pieces of information tell us? In my experience, a rapidly executed, large raise is usually the online version of aggressive table talk and false bravado. It's saying (loudly), "I am so strong here that I was ready to raise you instantly, so you'd better fold if you know what's good for you." Of course we all know poker players are a bunch of liars, so to quote Mike Caro, as players we should "figure out what your opponent wants you to do and disappoint them." If we're right about the range indicated by the size and speed of the raise, this increases the likelihood of a flush draw, combo draw, or pair+draw, while still allowing for a number of combinations of stronger made hands that are afraid to let draws chase. Consequently, I decide to shove all-in to get value out of all the hands I'm beating here, while still acknowledging and being fine with the fact that sometimes the villain will have me crushed. It's important to note that I am raising almost exclusively for value here, not as a bluff, as I expect the villain to call close to 100% of the time with all his/her hands. While it's possible that the villain would fold to a shove holding AK or AQ, the aggression of the flop raise and possibility that I could also be on a draw makes that highly unlikely.

Donzo: raises $21.40 to $22.90
UTGplus1: raises $0.13 to $23.03 and is all-in
Donzo: calls $0.13
*** TURN *** [2s 6s Ad] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [2s 6s Ad 4s] [4h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
UTGplus1: shows [7s As] (a flush, Ace high)
Donzo: shows [Ac Jd] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
UTGplus1 collected $46.41 from pot

I shove all-in, the villain calls and shows an ace with a flush draw and turns the 4 of spades for the flush. Going back to Equilab, my equity at the time of the shove was 52%, giving me the slight edge in EV. But again, the correctness (or incorrectness) of the decision lies with the pre-conclusion analysis.