The Mistake of Overbetting to Fold Out Draws

To show the other side of my post from yesterday, I want to briefly discuss the folly of overbetting the pot out of fear. This is a play and mindset that's common with some amateur players and effectively causes them to bleed money. I'll use an example from a hand I played last week that's a bit over-the-top, but still demonstrates what I'm talking about:

Seat 1: Dealer ($78.51 in chips)
Seat 2: Donzo ($166.05 in chips)
Seat 3: Big Blind ($199.74 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG ($88 in chips)
Seat 5: UTGplus1 ($122.75 in chips)
Seat 6: UTGplus2 ($96.45 in chips)
Donzo: posts small blind $0.50
Big Blind: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Donzo [7h 7s]
UTG: folds
UTGplus1: folds
UTGplus2: raises $3 to $3
Dealer: calls $3
Donzo: calls $2.50
Big Blind: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qd 8h 7c]
Donzo: checks
UTGplus2: checks
Dealer: bets $3
Donzo: calls $3
UTGplus2: folds

We're dealt 77 in the small blind and have a raise and call when it gets to us. Raising here is sometimes legitimate, but we decide to just flat and the big blind folds. Q87 is a semi-drawish flop, so leading out is an option, but if no one has a Q, overpair, or OESD, it will be difficult to get called. We check with the hope that we can call a bet and decide the best course of action on the turn. The villain (the button) bets $3 into $9. While that's a smaller bet than we'd like, it's possible that they are betting air or betting tentatively with either a Q, 7, or 8. Or conversely, they're betting small because they (think) they're big and don't want to scare everyone out of the pot. Consequently, we want to keep all those hands in and therefor elect to just call.

*** TURN *** [Qd 8h 7c] [2d]
Donzo: checks
Dealer: bets $72.51 and is all-in

A 2 comes on the turn which changes nothing and we check again. Inexplicably, the villain shoves all-in for $72, which is 4.5 times the size of the pot, and we're all like, "Christmas came early." Yeah yeah, it's theoretically possible that the villain has QQ or 88, but the 4.5x is so absurdly large that almost no player, without a prior read, is going to bet that much with those hands when they're hoping to extract maximum value. We call and the villain shows QJ.

Donzo: calls $72.51
*** RIVER *** [Qd 8h 7c 2d] [Kc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Dealer: shows [Jd Qs] (a pair of Queens)
Donzo: shows [7h 7s] (three of a kind, Sevens)
Donzo collected $158.02 from pot

The villain's shove is a perfect demonstration of fearful, fishy thinking. All the villain's thinking is: "People always outdraw on me, there are two cards to a straight out there and now two diamonds as well?! Screw this guy, no way am I letting that happen again, all-in!" What fish never seem to realize is that you want people to call you when they're drawing. Getting people to call with inferior equity is how money is made in poker and getting calls from straight draws and flush draws is part of that. But the fish was so afraid of the possibility that he/she might see a 3rd diamond or straight card come and be put to a decision that they made a bet that almost always gets inferior hands to fold and superior hands to call. Nevermind the fact that the only information the villain has about our range is a $3 check/call on the flop and a check on the turn, which gives us a far wider range of hands than a straight or flush draw. As if that wasn't bad enough, the flush draw didn't come until the turn, making a turned flush draw an incidental occurrence. It's possible that such a huge overbet could compel a fold from a hand like KQ or AQ, but that isn't why the fish made the bet and it would have been a bad reason anyway.

When holding a decent hand (like TP) for which one hopes to get value, it's imperative not to allow fear of hypotheticals to compel terrible decisions like the one above. Learn to live with the fact that sometimes people will outdraw you and that's ok and that it doesn't mean that you "didn't bet enough." If you make more reasonable bets and allow some of those hands to draw on you, you'll play a more profitable game and become more accustomed to being put to decisions and the reality that having an opponent outdraw you is just part of poker.