Aces and Evolving Scenarios

While it's often more interesting to analyze the "weird" hands, it's also helpful to make sure that we're reviewing how we play our monster hands. In this example, I'll talk a little about how I played AA and how the dynamic of this particular hand was a little different.

Seat 1: UTG ($28.41 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG+1 ($3.84 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG+2 ($26.03 in chips)
Seat 4: Dealer ($9.92 in chips)
Seat 5: Small Blind [ME] ($36.91 in chips)
Seat 6: Big Blind ($33.69 in chips)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Small Blind  [ME] : Card dealt to a spot [As Ac]
UTG : Calls $0.25
UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Folds
Dealer : Folds
Small Blind  [ME] : Raises $0.90 to $1
Big Blind : Calls $0.75
UTG : Calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [Ah 3h Tc]
Small Blind  [ME] : Checks
Big Blind : Checks
UTG : Bets $1
Small Blind  [ME] : Calls $1
Big Blind : Calls $1

Preflop is standard, although I perhaps could've raised it to $1.25 instead of $1. I was raising to isolate with the UTG limper, but get called by the blind blind as well.

At these stakes I think the check on the flop is mandatory. At higher stakes against more sophisticated players it might make sense to lead this flop, as some will know that your continuation bet range includes some bluffs and are therefore likely to call you with a T or worse. But at .10/.25 we can't assume that's likely and can only expect to be called by flush draws or an ace or better. As there is only one ace left in the deck, a check here is best. The big blind checks behind and UTG bets $1 into about $3, which is small and probably indicates a weak hand. Again, I don't like raising here because I want to keep inferior hands in the pot and a raise declares my hand to be either a flush draw or something very strong. I call and the big blind does as well.

*** TURN *** [Ah 3h Tc] [Kh]
Small Blind  [ME] : Bets $3
Big Blind : Calls $3
UTG : Folds

The turn card is mildly concerning, as it brings in the possible flush and a gutshot straight draw with QJ. That said, I'm happier than not to see it, as one or both players are more likely to continue in the hand if they're holding the Q or J of hearts with a pair and/or gutshot, e.g. KJ, KQ, QT or JT w/ the Q or J of hearts, JJ with the J of hearts, or perhaps a tentatively-played AQ or AJ with or without the Q/J of hearts. There's also a small chance of KT. Having flopped top set I now need to attempt to get value and bet $3 into about $6. In retrospect this was too little and I should've made it somewhere closer to $4.50 or $5.

It's important to note that this is a situation where a lot of players might check instead of going for value, due to concern about the possibility that the K of hearts made their opponent's hand. While sometimes it's prudent to check with a big hand when a 3rd flush or straight card hits, the flop action and texture of the board present a situation where there is too much money to be made from weaker hands to pass up betting. And even if one of the villains did hit their flush, we're drawing to 10 outs to hit our quads or boat (one ace, three 3's, three T's, three K's), which we have a 22.73% chance to hit.

*** RIVER *** [Ah 3h Tc Kh] [Kc]
Small Blind  [ME] : Bets $11
Big Blind : Calls $11

The K on the river is the best card in the deck for several reasons: 1) Obviously we hit our boat and can only be beaten by quad kings, which is basically impossible for either villain to have because of how the preflop action went. 2) Hands that were a little speculative on the turn like KQ and KJ are likely to call the river here with trips (or if we're very lucky the villain has KT). 3) If the villain has a flush, we are essentially always getting called here, as we could easily be betting a K ourselves or AQ/AJ.

Though it's conceivable to check/raise here, the villain could easily check behind with two pair or trip kings and might even take a bet/fold line if facing a check/raise from us. Consequently, I go for value and bet $11 into a little less than $12. The villain calls and shows 89 of hearts for a turned flush.


Respecting the Process

While it's tempting to look back at the hand and say, "The villain turned a flush, that means we should've raised the flop" or "we should've check/called the turn," it's important to keep our analysis of the hand dependent on the information available at the time. If our logic is good, it's our logical process that matters, not the results of the hand or what the villain was "actually" holding. Results should only be used to help us investigate whether our logic was in fact good or whether we perhaps didn't come to intelligent conclusions about the villain's range. This will be a theme that I bring up again, as it is perhaps the biggest impediment to amateur players not improving their game.