Floating the Flop to Bluff the Turn

A play often employed by professionals (and one I don't use enough) is "floating" (i.e. calling with air) to bluff a later street. If done selectively and intelligently, it can turn profit out of seemingly nothing, make it extremely difficult for opponents to put you on a hand, and discourage future aggression. Here's a hand from a few days ago where I floated with essentially nothing and accomplished at least two of the above goals:

Seat 1: Small Blind ($142.65 in chips)
Seat 2: Big Blind ($87 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG ($32.40 in chips)
Seat 5: UTGplus1 ($109.85 in chips)
Seat 6: Donzo ($132.90 in chips)
Small Blind: posts small blind $0.50
Big Blind: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Donzo [6h 8h]
UTG: folds
UTGplus1: folds
Donzo: raises $3 to $3
Small Blind: raises $9.50 to $10
Big Blind: folds

We're dealt 86 of hearts on the button and it folds around to us. Unless the blinds are calling stations, this is a hand we should normally be opening and we do so. The villain in the small blind raises to $10 and the big blind folds. This is the third opening raise out of my last four that the villain has 3bet (re-raised) me. And while that's a small sample size, chances are good that they're raising a reasonably wide range because I'm opening a wide range. Consequently, while a fold is a perfectly acceptable option as we're only holding 8 high, we have the choice to play a versatile hand in position against an aggressive villain. A re-raise is also valid, but if we face a shove we're always going to have to fold, plus our raise is less likely to be given credence due to the aforementioned couple hands we'd recently folded to the villain's raises, as the likelihood that we are raising "in frustration" inevitably comes into play. A call, on the other hand, keeps the pot size more manageable while allowing us to play the hand in position and indicate we're willing to see a flop.

Donzo: calls $7
*** FLOP *** [5c 9s Ac]
Small Blind: bets $12.50

The flop comes A95 with two clubs and the villain bets $12.50 into $21, or about 60% of the pot. At this point we have absolutely nothing except a gut shot straight draw to the 7. The most obvious choice here is to fold, considering how far behind most of the villain's range we are. However, if this villain is as loose as our limited sample size has led us to believe, we have to think that they're betting most of their preflop 3betting range here. We might therefore be inclined to use our position to raise, but again, if hypothetically we're holding a strong hand here like AJ+ or a set or two pair, we want to keep all his weaker hands in the pot. Therefore, a raise by definition keeps more bluffs in our range and might compel the villain to either call or re-raise. A call, by contrast, effectively indicates our range to be a flush draw, a pair, or better. Factoring in the recent history with the villain, a call is paradoxically the more "passive" and yet stronger play. We call, with the intent to bluff the turn if the villain checks (and possibly raise a second bet).

Donzo: calls $12.50
*** TURN *** [5c 9s Ac] [2d]
Small Blind: checks

The turn brings a blank 2 and the villain checks. As we'd planned, we bet $30 into $46 and the villain quickly folds.

Donzo: bets $30
Small Blind: folds
Uncalled bet ($30) returned to Donzo
Donzo collected $44 from pot

In this example, our play accomplished exactly what we were hoping for despite the fact that we were drawing to four outs on the turn. Furthermore, for the rest of the session the villain didn't re-raise me, as he/she probably decided that there was less profit in it than they originally thought. It's important to realize that sometimes the above play isn't going to work and that players should not just start floating flops left and right. But if used sparingly, it can be a valuable tool against the right kind of villain.

Low Risk, High % Bluffs

When looking for bluff opportunities, we should identify situations where our hand looks "inevitably" strong and our opponents will therefore have an extremely difficult time making a call. Sometimes we can accomplish this by taking a hand that we assumed was a lost cause and using a favorable board texture to represent a hand we wouldn't otherwise have been able to. Just such a scenario happened for me a few days ago:

Seat 1: UTGplus1 ($116.90 in chips)
Seat 2: Donzo ($101.20 in chips)
Seat 3: Dealer ($179.45 in chips)
Seat 4: Small Blind ($74.95 in chips)
Seat 5: Big Blind ($100 in chips)
Seat 6: UTG ($117.30 in chips)
Small Blind: posts small blind $0.50
Big Blind: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Donzo [Kd Js]
UTG: folds (timeout)
UTGplus1: folds
UTG: Seat re-join
Donzo: raises $3 to $3
Dealer: calls $3
Small Blind: folds
Big Blind: folds
*** FLOP *** [2h 7h 7d]

We're dealt KJ in the cutoff and open to $3. The villain calls on the button and the blinds fold. The flop is 772 with two hearts. As this flop misses most of the villain's button calling range, we make a standard continuation bet and the villain calls.

Donzo: bets $5
Dealer: calls $5
*** TURN *** [2h 7h 7d] [8h]

The turn brings an 8 and a 3rd heart. While we could continue betting here, we really aren't sure what the villain has. They could have called the flop with a 7, a 2, an overpair, a flush draw, or ace high. If they have an overpair, they're likely to call at least one more bet and they're never folding a 7. And if they were just calling with a hand like AT-AK and are holding a heart, they're likely going to at least call one more street to try and hit. Consequently we check, expecting to fold if the villain bets, but they check behind.

Donzo: checks
Dealer: checks
*** RIVER *** [2h 7h 7d 8h] [6h]

The river brings a 6 and a 4th heart. At this point we could check and give up, as there's almost no chance that we can have the best hand here after the villain's flop call. However, we can consider a bet here due to the information given to us by the villain's turn check. In a situation that brings a 3rd heart, an overpair is almost always going to bet the turn to get value from single heart flush draws, as is a 7. There's a small chance of 88 for a turned boat, but not enough to be worrisome. Furthermore, if the villain had called the flop with just ace high while also holding a strong heart, it's likely (though not guaranteed) that they would use that extra equity to bet the turn, rather then letting the river come for free. As a result, the likelihood of the villain having trips, a boat, or a strong flush is significantly diminished. We decide to make a small bet of $7 into $17.50.

Donzo: bets $7

The size of our bet accomplishes two things: 1) The bet size is very small and consequently looks like an an enticement to call a flush. 2) Due to the small size of our bet, we don't need the villain to fold that often for the bet to be profitable. In fact, our bluff only needs to work about 28.5% of the time to be profitable:

$7 / ($7 + $17.50) = 28.5%

At these stakes particularly, unless a player just feels like donking off money it is going to be very difficult for them to make a call here without a flush and possibly difficult even with a weak flush. As a result we can feel confident that our bluff is going to work here often enough to make it profitable. The bet does work and the villain folds.

Dealer: folds
Uncalled bet ($7) returned to Donzo
Donzo collected $16.65 from pot

Rather than being intimidated by "scary" boards like the one above, we can figure out how likely they are to help our opponent and then use them to our advantage to pick up some money that might have seemed impossible to win.

When a Bet Is Both a Bluff AND for Value

As I discussed awhile ago in this post, when we make a bet we should have an understanding of why we're betting. This generally means that we are either betting to get our opponent to call with a worse hand or fold a better hand. Sometimes, though, we can make a bet that serves both functions at once and ends up being profitable as a result. Here's a hand I played last week where that was the case:

Seat 1: UTG ($28.80 in chips)
Seat 2: UTGplus1 ($107.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Donzo ($98.90 in chips)
Seat 4: Dealer ($120.80 in chips)
Seat 5: Small Blind ($46.90 in chips)
Seat 6: Big Blind ($126.70 in chips)
Small Blind: posts small blind $0.50
Big Blind: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Donzo [8d 8s]
UTG: folds
UTGplus1: folds
Donzo: raises $3 to $3
Dealer: folds
Small Blind: calls $2.50
Big Blind: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [9d Kd 6c]
Small Blind: checks
Big Blind: checks

We're dealt 88 in the cutoff and raise and both the blinds call. The flop is 9K6 with two diamonds and the blinds check to us. At this point checking behind is a valid option, as there are two overcards and we're unlikely to get a call from a pair worse than 88. However, if we check behind we are advertising that it's extremely unlikely that we are holding a K or better, thereby effectively limiting our hand representation to a bluff catcher on subsequent streets. If, however, we bet, we can rep a much stronger range and apply more pressure to the blinds while still getting value from drawing hands against which we're currently ahead. There is a wide range of drawing hands and combo draw hands on this board, from a simple diamond draw to JT or QJ with or without diamonds. If we're going to make this bet, we need to A) be prepared to fire more than one barrel to get opponents to fold a 9 or weaker K's and B) have a reasonable expectation that our opponents are not going to play their draws aggressively (i.e. check-raise us). We bet $5 into $9 and the small blind calls.

Donzo: bets $5
Small Blind: calls $5
Big Blind: folds
*** TURN *** [9d Kd 6c] [Th]
Small Blind: checks

The turn brings a T, which completes the QJ straight as well as two pair with T9 and KT and a few combinations that were drawing to the flush with the T of diamonds, but is otherwise a card that misses the range of flush draws and Kx and 9x hands that would have conceivably check/called the flop. Consequently, we can expect that more often than not the T is a card that reduces the strength of the villain's hand, rather than increases it. The villain checks again and, armed with the above knowledge, we can once again bet with the confidence that A) we can still get value from hands that have a flush and/or straight draw without a pair, and B) that our continued aggression on this scary, drawish board is going to be too much for anything worse than a K to call and may also compel the fold of a weaker K. The fact that we're undeterred by the T when it fills in a number of hands is a de facto argument for a strong hand when we bet. More specifically, we might break down the villain's continuance range as follows:

Villain's Value Continuance Range: KQ**, KJ**, KT, K9, 99, TT, QJ, T9, 66

Villain's Drawing and Semi-Drawing (e.g. pairs with a draw) Continuance Range: J9*, Q9*, all diamond draws (including diamonds that picked up a T on the turn)*.

*Hand that folds to a river bet if draws miss and the hand doesn't hit trips or two pair.

**Hand that might fold to a river bet if draws miss and the hand doesn't hit trips or two pair.

Although there is a small chance of the villain having AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK, the absence of a preflop 3bet makes the possibility of those hands rather small. For the category of hands that have a weaker pair with a draw, we may have to be prepared to fire a third barrel on the river (assuming the draws miss). We should also know that if we bet the turn and get raised, we're always folding, as it's possible that the villain would do that with a draw, but far more likely that they're showing aggression on the turn with two pairs, trips, or a straight. 

The final complicating factor is, if the villain calls the turn and the river brings a 3rd diamond and the villain checks, do we fire a 3rd barrel to represent the flush and attempt to get the villain to fold all Kx hands, two pairs, and sets, or do we give up? I'm inclined to say the answer is to check behind, as many villains will make a "crying call" on a 3rd diamond if they're holding two pair, a straight, or a set, but the answer is probably dependent on the villain and whether the diamond that completes the flush is low or high.

In any event the point is moot in this example, as we bet $11 into $19 and the villain folds.

Donzo: bets $11
Small Blind: folds
Uncalled bet ($11) returned to Donzo
Donzo collected $18.05 from pot

Often our bets are for a single purpose and that's totally fine.  But sometimes we're presented with situations where we can attack different parts of the villain's range with entirely different purposes and they're both profitable. And when we recognize those scenarios and play accordingly, we're on the road to Money City. :D